Indian Stock Market

Thanks for the post, do keep updating. Upart from interest rate cut scenario
can you focus on various other issues which I had raised in different thread under P.S. such as inflation, currency conversion ratio, yen, oil price, gold, etc. how they will affect to u.s. market and the world economy in the whole?
Piyush On 9/7/07, KKP_Investor wrote: > > > Here is an article that may be of interest to you…..Please provide > your views and comments. > > Deepakji was nice enough to post this to his web site also at: > http://www.stateofthemarket.net/newsletter.htm > > How to Predict Rate Cuts and What Do You Do Next? > > We are all waiting for a big decision to come down from Ben. This is > the new Ben that has no patterns to his talks, speech, and special > lingo. We are all new to him, and the world awaits the big decision > on Sep 18th. Well, it seems that the recent discount rate (a very > special kind of rate) cut and a good level of liquidity-filled- > injections seems to have given the market on a global basis, some kind > of stability. Interest rate sensitive instruments had a huge spike > down due to the recent turmoil and are now bouncing up, with all of > the cash on the sidelines coming to work. > > So, how do we predict what is coming……Well the answer is too > simple. Just look at the Fed Fund futures - to get the best estimate > of upcoming Fed actions is to learn to read the futures market. The > Chicago Board of Trade does big business in futures contracts on Fed > Funds rate , and if you can master a little bit of simple math, those > contracts are the closest thing we’ve got to a peephole into Ben’s > heart/soul. They are predicting a 100% probability of a rate cut at > the Fed’s September 18th meeting. The 2 and 3 year Treasury Notes > are yielding 4.3%. This also means that we will have a 100+ basis > points of Fed Fund rate cuts over the next year. In addition, lets > look at the 5 year Treasury Note yield at 4.4%. This is also > ridiculously low that the Seniors banking on FD/CD income are really > hurting. This is incredibly low rate compared to the Inflation Rate > and the Fed Funds rate. IMHO, additional rate cuts have to be > factored in these low rates cause these futures reflect the entire > marketplace’s collective wisdom about what the Fed is going to do with > the prices of the futures set by real traders risking real money. > > Personally, I believe that there is no better company than PIMCO > following interest rates, bonds, and other income generating > instruments. I have a lot of money invested in PIMCO (and Blackrock) > funds myself. Why? Simple. They pick the best bonds, follow the > interest rate market very closely, and manage a very large number of > bond mutual funds (closed end and open end). They believe that there > will be a 100 basis points cut in the Fed Fund rate in the next 12 > months, with a 50 basis point cut at the Fed’s September meeting!!!!! > I am not so sure about the 50 basis point cut, cause that will send > too strong a signal in the marketplace, almost making the rate cut > bearish. So, I’d be happy with a 25 basis point cut on Sep 18th. > But, hey, we are now debating ‘how much’, and not questioning ‘if’ > they are going to cut it! > > Couple the timing of all of this with the fact that 2008 is election > year, and the Republicans need more than a prayer to be selected, esp. > with strong candidacy from the Democratic side. In the meantime, the > war is draining resources, putting US into a deeper debt all the way > around. In addition, our young soldiers are dying every day, and when > one tries to talk to the parents of that 20 some old son or daughter, > it hits home very hard, and very quickly on what we are doing out > there in foreign land. Back to Bernanke’s stance…..He will be under > pressure to keep the economy humming along, get this MBS/Sub-Prime > behind him, and do a few rate cuts. > > So, if you are US based investor, start jumping into interest rate > sensitive instruments like I am doing, and if you are in the Indian or > Chinese markets, then keep your long term positions in tact, since a > bigger bull market is on the way with the US MBS/Sub-Prime issue > looking like a flu when you look back 6 to 12 month from now to > Sep’2007…. > > KKP > > > ps: US might also start the reduction in interest rate cycle > throughout the world….. > > > > >