Indian Stock Market

I agree with most of your points with one difference in the 2001 recession.
The 2001 recession was created out of excesses, but the investment theme of millenium was still strongly in effect with off-shoring being really big, and taking off. Outsourcing contracts are large, and long. Once inked, there are huge Contract Minimum that have to be adhered to. I am living a contract right now, and about to sell/contract another one ($110M+ TCV).
In addition, the off-shoring to near-by economies (Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Mexico and others) + the huge number of Off-shoring contractors (besides InfoSys, Wipro, TCS and others) may start to affect Indian companies. In addition, the cost of hedging against other currencies, or actually taking a beating for hedge not working out to be a net-net-advantage will affect the bottom line of these companies.
Timing the purchase of INFY, WIT, SAY, SIFY, REDF, TCS (upcoming) etc is going to be critical for us investors (in the US) as well as Indian investors.
I love Sterlite and have started buying it in a ad-hoc SIP mode in the US.
Please get on to the US ISG site and start communicating these messages over there. We need to get started and get active over there.
KKP
ps: If someone is wondering what the last sentence means, then it is a US based group on Google for investors who are investing in US stocks, and who wish to be active participants. Please contact Guru or myself. Thanks.
Debashish Ghosh wrote: > HI KKP, > Very good points. But do remember one thing….the last recession of > 2001 made offshoring/outsourcing take off in a big way. Though past > performances do not guarantee future repeats they do give yu a good > perspective. Again what I am seeing in a big way here in Omaha even > SMBs are jumping into the offshoring bandwagon though this time around > the rates are just abysmal. Also I am seeing a demand for near shoring > outsourcing. A very big credit card processing company which was just > acquired by a PE company has their development center here in Omaha. > They wanted to near-shore their entire development/maintenance work to > a company in South America for the time zone issues. You know who won > the multi-million dollar multi-year project in Brazil. Satyam. They > were nimble and fast enough to set up a development center in Rio, > hire Brazilians but also moved some people from India who would work > in Brazil and voila they have won the project. Plus the rates are > better than that of Indian offshoring. So I really think companies > like Infy, CTSH, SAY, WIT who are nimble and quick to turn around and > execute would make all of us a lot of money in the foresable future. > However the name of the game is to understand when to enter. You guys > have opened my eyes to TA and hope to make better decisions in entering. > Another stock I have just started nibling here in the US is Sterlite > Thanks > Debashish > > On 9/4/07, *KKP_Investor* > wrote: > > > Yes, I am in the IT sector, sitting in the US. I only have a > small view > of the world, and am biased based on what I see/experience. So, I am > sure, I am wrong about a lot of things when I talk in > generalities, and > when I talk about ‘future’ direction and prediction. > > HLL is a very humbling experience for a lot of ‘older investors’ > since > this has underperformed BSE in a huge way, esp. when the rest of > it has > moved. I am a holder of HLL, Colgate, ITC, P&G and other > FMCG/Cosmetics > type of stocks. I am slowing moving out of them, transitioning the > portfolio to other better picks. > > Back to IT stocks. I think it is creating a humbling environment > for the > all the IT investors, since stocks, like trees, cannot continue to > grow > to the sky. And, if the US hits a minor recession (I say minor since > Bernake will do all he can not to taint his beginnings with a deep > recession), then we will see another 10% to 30% correction in these > stocks (10 and 30 are random numbers, without any analysis, and not > meant to scare anyone). > > But, while all this is going on, we at ISG should be vigilent to pick > this up near the bottom. Fibo analysis can give us an idea of how far > down it can go (61%, 50%, 38% etc). Draw those numbers and > watch. At > that point, these stocks can enter a long term portfolio for new > investors who do not have any exposure. > > My current favorite is NIIT Tech as some of you know. I have played > this stock successfully, and made money on it also. Today it went > ex-Bonus, but there are already too many buyers jumping on it. On > a bit > of a pull back, we should get into this stock. > > KKP > > > Ramki wrote: > > Thanks for your inputs KKP_Investor. I believe you are working > in IT > > Industry and your information is your own personal experience > (correct > > me if i am wrong). > > > > >From my experience in stocks for last 7 years, I find that > while stock > > markets are very rewarding to those companies that show consistent > > growth, the same markets are very punishing to those companies which > > falter in their growth and show stagnation and uncertainity > (think of > > HLL in last 6 years). I think this is a indication of what is to > come > > in this sector. > > > > > > > > On Sep 3, 9:53 pm, KKP_Investor > wrote: > > > >> My view on IT Stocks: > >> > >> Indian IT stocks will shine, but once the ‘black clouds’ of ‘US > economy > >> slowdown, IT slowdown, $-Rs appreciation’ and other factors are > someone > >> ‘more’ known that they are right now. > >> > >> US eco is slowing down. In a slowdown, margins will have to > shrink, IT > >> budgets will be cut, and only the projects that create > net-savings will > >> be executed. We are already been asked to cut down on > expenses, and > >> travel. This is usually the starting sign of a US slowdown, > and I am > >> personally already experiencing it. > >> > >> Hope this completely answers the question. > >> > >> KKP > >> > >> > >> > >> santosh s wrote: > >> > >>> Hi > >>> I don’t hv Polaris and my broker has recommended me to buy it. > >>> Members pls share your views. > >>> Thanks. > >>> > >>> */Chandramukhi L >/* wrote: > >>> > >>> This is really a nice feedback and advise > >>> Thanks > >>> > >>> But what is your take on IT sector? > >>> > >>> On 9/1/07, *KKP_Investor* > >>> >> wrote: > >>> > >>> You have to have a very large portfolio and be ready > to hold > >>> things > >>> through thick and thin, gain and loss. That is what a > contrarian > >>> approach takes. A stomach of steel. Holding Sugar > Stocks, > >>> and even > >>> more, buying in late 2006, early 2007 is something > that very > >>> few can do > >>> since most cannot handle a losing situation for too > >>> long. After that, > >>> it wears on one’s confidence and personal credibility. > >>> > >>> IT stocks will shine, but once the ‘black clouds’ of > ‘US economy > >>> slowdown, IT slowdown, $-Rs appreciation’ and other > factors > >>> are someone > >>> ‘more’ known that right now. > >>> > >>> My reco, is that if you want to be a contrarian, buy > using a > >>> Stock-SIP > >>> methodology. You take the ‘time’ risk and melt it > down to > >>> virtually zero. > >>> > >>> Hope this helps. > >>> > >>> KKP > >>> > >>> Chandramukhi L wrote: > >>> > Where to check the survey? > >>> > >>> > What do you say abt contrarian approoach? > >>> > >>> > On 8/31/07, *KKP_Investor* > >>> > > >>> > > >>> >>> wrote: > >>> > >>> > I am not sure about the optimistic view of > Eshersji and > >>> > Chadramukhiji……If you are bottom-fishing or > adding > >>> to existing > >>> > positions that is a different story. > >>> > >>> > We might get a chance to buy at lower prices > relative to > >>> > current. Yes, > >>> > it has shown a recovery, but too much resistance > above > >>> it. Check out > >>> > the survey that I participate in with approx > 8000 other > >>> people who > >>> > have > >>> > a deep view into their own company or their > customers > >>> situation. This > >>> > shows the future of IT spending in the US: > >>> > >>> > KKP > >>> > >>> > sm wrote: > >>> > > Better to add Infy at around 1600 if it goes > there. I > >>> am not > >>> > buying it > >>> > > yet. > >>> > >>> > > On 31/08/2007, *Eshers* > >>> > > >>> > >> > >>> > > > >>> > >>>> > >>> > > wrote: > >>> > >>> > > I recently added infy and i do agree many > of the > >>> IT stocks are > >>> > > looking really attractive. I would wait > for the > >>> results though > >>> > > before i put in fresh money at the current > levels. > >>> Normally > >>> > q2 is > >>> > > the best one for the sector. Hope this qtr > will > >>> revive the > >>> > > fortunes of the IT companies. > >>> > >>> > > Cheers > >>> > >>> > > On 8/30/07, *Chandramukhi L* >>> l.chandramu…@gmail.com > > > >>> > > >>> >> > >>> > > > >>> > > >>> > > >>> >>>> wrote: > >>> > >>> > > Any contrarians out there? > >>> > >>> > > I feel a bit bullish on IT sector. > Appears to > >>> be oversold > >>> > > Friends, Pl. let me have your views > >>> > >>> > > — > >>> > > With regards > >>> > > Cheers > >>> > > Chand > >>> > >>> > > — > >>> > > I work in the IT industry and passionate about > >>> markets. > >>> > Active in > >>> > > the markets for the last 5 years. Reading > about > >>> legends like > >>> > > Buffett, Munger, Peter lynch etc gave some > good > >>> insights about > >>> > > investing and markets.. Great Fan of Ramesh > >>> Damani.. His chats > >>> > > since rediff days helped me a lot to > understand > >>> and learn > >>> > > (whatever little i have learned) about > markets. > >>> > >>> > > Prefer concenrated Portfolio and long-term > >>> investing. My core > >>> > > holdings are Infosys, Nucleus, KLG Systel, > M&M , > >>> PLNG.I normally > >>> > > avoid cyclicals, Commodities.. > >>> > >>> > > — > >>> > > “Dreams are not the ones you see when you > sleep but > >>> are those which > >>> > > never let you sleep till they are achieved” > >>> > >>> > ———————————————————————— > >>> Try the revolutionary next-gen Yahoo! Mail. Click here. > >>> http://in.rd.yahoo.com/tagline_mail_10/*http://mrd.mail.yahoo.com/dc/…>- > Hide quoted text - > >>> > >> - Show quoted text - > >> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >