Indian Stock Market News and Analysis

Hi Abhi,
Just to make things clear … 1. I have not made any comments on Advanta (i think that you agree on that), i commented on two of SS’s calls - Sika Interplant & Sandur Manganese. The reason was that the figures of EPS/NP quoted by the analyst on those 2 scrips made them “blind buys” if true (unfortunately, they do not appear to be so). 2. Sandur Manganese has indeed risen 150% since SS made her posting. I have clearly stated that the company is not at all a bad one, only that the EPS for FY08 will be in the Rs 12 to Rs 15 range (approx) & not Rs 120 as stated by the analyst. I have not advised people not to buy, but have asked people to make a decision based on the what i believe fully to be the authentic EPS projections of Rs 12-15. So if one feels that a P/E discounting of 125 times current year’s figures is warranted for the stock, one is free to make that determination, and if one feels a discounting of 10 times is appropriate, one is free to make that determination also. Accordingly one can decide for ones- self what is a fair price for the stock. 3. The company officials have explained to me in detail why there will not be a ramp-up in production, even as & when they get fresh mining areas allotted to them. The only upside i can see, is if the new area’s yeild high quality ore, as against the low quality ore that the current mines are yielding them.
I have placed all the telephone numbers of company officials on this thread & any member can ring & verify if i have twisted any information. Unfortunately, no one else is willing to disclose their sources.
I probably did not mention this before on this forum, but when i told Mr. Acharya that his company was being compared to NMDC, he laughed & said that apart from the fact that one of NMDC’s mines bordered Sandur’s own mines, there was absolutely no comparison between the two.
Hope this clarifies matters.
Regards,
Bosco
On Sep 11, 8:51 pm, ~abhi wrote: > Debashish,… > > read more >> > > please do not create unnecessary fire on the group. > Clearly ‘huge cry’ refers to advanta > > > many members could have benefited from this call if few members had not ma= de > a huge cry on advanta call by SS ji > > > please refrain from misinterpretation simple statements and giving a twist > to the whole idea behind the message. > > what i meant was that we need to respect calls given out until they are > totally ludicrous and also do our homework, and if we dont do, then do not > blame others. > > On 9/11/07, Debashish Ghosh wrote: > > > > > > > This is a very careless and damaging statement. What do you mean by huge > > cry? Bosco was absolutely right in doing the due dilligence about the > > company and it was extremely nice of him to share his findings with us. = He > > could have easily kept quite but he waited for the quarterly results to = be > > out and then post his findings. Remember in a short term (three months) = any > > operator driven stock can go to the moon but what about long term. Do yo= u > > have any evidence that whatever SSji is claiming is true ? Bosco atlea= st > > has hard facts and company officials to back up his findings. What Bosco= has > > done is a selfless service for ISG and he has never asked anyone > > specifically not to invest in that stock. > > Debashish > > > On 9/11/07, ~abhi wrote: > > > > stock is running crazy at 184 > > > many members could have benefitted from this call if few members had n= ot > > > made a huge cry on advanta call by SS ji > > > > advanta is at same levels as when the call was given. Sandur has near > > > tripled. > > > > i am not a SS fan nor foe, just want to point out that > > > > 1. we need to be patient > > > 2. not blame the member for a flopped call. > > > > this reduces the interest of the member as well as the fellow members.= .. > > > > regards, > > > abhi. > > > > On 8/11/07, kukku picks wrote: > > > > > hi zee nut, > > > > > > i do not track this stock, so no comment on this. > > > > > this is the reason i have not participated earlier also in this > > > > thread. > > > > > > thanks for creating awareness. > > > > > > note- i never bought this stock nor i hold or track. > > > > > > kukku > > > > > > On 09/08/07, Naveen Kumar wrote: > > > > > > > Hi Zeenut, > > > > > > > I really appreciate the pain you take in finding out the whole > > > > > > news. I remember getting advised by you earlier. > > > > > > > Thanks, > > > > > > Naveen > > > > > > > On 8/9/07, ZeeNut wrote: > > > > > > > > Would just like to clarify a few points : > > > > > > > 1. That i certainly do not follow-up on all the stories posted > > > > > > > on this > > > > > > > forum, nor all the stories posted by any individual. I only > > > > > > > follow-up > > > > > > > stories that look extremely good, with the intention of > > > > > > > investing > > > > > > > myself. It may be a coincidence that these 2 stories (Sika & > > > > > > > Sandur) > > > > > > > that looked to be no-brainers based on the information posted = on > > > > > > > ISG > > > > > > > originated from the same person & turned out to be substantial= ly > > > > > > > off > > > > > > > the mark. It is also probably a coincidence that a certain > > > > > > > research > > > > > > > house (start’s with the alphabet C) also broke these stories a= t > > > > > > > the > > > > > > > same time. I do not track all the posts of the individual who > > > > > > > has > > > > > > > posted these stories, and i certainly cannot say if there is a= ny > > > > > > > > particular motivation behind the same. In any case, both the > > > > > > > companies > > > > > > > i am sure are not bad at all, it is only the information poste= d > > > > > > > about > > > > > > > them that is incorrect. > > > > > > > 2. There are many analysts who are doing an excellent job, on > > > > > > > this > > > > > > > forum & elsewhere . So let’s not look at the entire analyst > > > > > > > community > > > > > > > with suspicion, because of the possible wrong-doings of a few. > > > > > > > 3. It is my personal opinion (i may be wrong) but one must > > > > > > > always > > > > > > > allow for the possibility that people who post positive stuff = on > > > > > > > > companies are already holding the stock, whether disclosures a= re > > > > > > > made > > > > > > > or not. The more attractive the story, the more the possibilit= y > > > > > > > that > > > > > > > the person breaking it has taken a position (this is not wrong= , > > > > > > > we are > > > > > > > in the market to make money for ourselves first & then for > > > > > > > others). I > > > > > > > also believe that entries are well publicized & exits rarely s= o. > > > > > > > My > > > > > > > comments apply to all members, myself included. So each member > > > > > > > needs > > > > > > > to ask himself if the story is already stale & whether it is > > > > > > > exit-time > > > > > > > for the early movers. Speaking for myself, i try to religiousl= y > > > > > > > post > > > > > > > my disclosures. The moderators are constantly encouraging such > > > > > > > disclosures. > > > > > > > 4. On the question of barring posts by members, I have express= ed > > > > > > > the > > > > > > > opinion before too that I am per se not in favour of this. > > > > > > > Often, > > > > > > > hidden gems come to light from totally unknown & low-profile > > > > > > > members. > > > > > > > Also, if a certain account is blocked, who is to say the same > > > > > > > person > > > > > > > will not use another ? I would far more prefer if members did > > > > > > > their > > > > > > > own proper research first on any company highlighted on this > > > > > > > group. > > > > > > > > - ZeeNut > > > > > > > > On Aug 8, 9:30 pm, harsh mehta wrot= e: > > > > > > > > U are Invalueable to this group - keep it up Bosco - yes thi= s > > > > > > > is “SONIAJI”s 3rd fiasco - 1st Advanta 2nd Sikal Inter & now t= his. She has > > > > > > > lost trust of this group, and i think moderators shud seriousl= y think of > > > > > > > mderating her recos. > > > > > > > > > ZeeNut wrote: > > > > > > > > > Dear Sonia, > > > > > > > > > Sandur Manganese has posted an EPS of RS 3.37 for the quarte= r. > > > > > > > This > > > > > > > > leaves the company to earn another Rs 117/- in the next 3 > > > > > > > quarters to > > > > > > > > achieve your target of an EPS of Rs 120/- plus for FY08 !! > > > > > > > > > After you had posted the above “scoop”, I contacted the > > > > > > > company & > > > > > > > > spoke to the following company officials to confirm the stor= y > > > > > > > : > > > > > > > > > Mr. Abdul Saleem (Company Secretary) - Ph : 09448497927 > > > > > > > > Mr Acharya (Sr Mgr) - Ph : 09448497903 > > > > > > > > Both these officials are available at the Bangalore office o= f > > > > > > > the > > > > > > > > company, the board numbers of which are : 080-23445847, > > > > > > > 080-41490385, > > > > > > > > 080-41490387. > > > > > > > > > Unfortunately, the information given by the company official= s > > > > > > > does not > > > > > > > > fit in with your projections at all. > > > > > > > > > The consolidated information given by them is as follows : > > > > > > > > 1. The primary business of the company is mining for mangane= se > > > > > > > ore. > > > > > > > > More than 90% of company’s mining is for manganese ore & les= s > > > > > > > than 10% > > > > > > > > for iron ore, which is undertaken only when iron ore prices > > > > > > > are high. > > > > > > > > > 2. Company produces very low grade manganese ore, which > > > > > > > requires extra > > > > > > > > processing to use the same, so prices are very low (approx R= s > > > > > > > 3000 per > > > > > > > > ton). As for the little iron ore it produces, it is again > > > > > > > mostly low > > > > > > > > grade, with some middle grades also. > > > > > > > > > This contradicts your statement that the company has “very > > > > > > > high > > > > > > > > quality iron ore and manganese mines”!! > > > > > > > > > 3. The company has to bring in 150 Cr over a few years, as > > > > > > > part of the > > > > > > > > financial settlement to bring the company out of BIFR. > > > > > > > > > 4. The Mining licenses of the company had expired on > > > > > > > 31.12.2006 & the > > > > > > > > State Govt did not renew the same. However the company went = to > > > > > > > the > > > > > > > > Supreme Court, which has allowed the company to continue > > > > > > > mining in > > > > > > > > existing area of operations, pending receiving the same from > > > > > > > the State > > > > > > > > Govt. This is a “deemed approval” & the company does not fea= r > > > > > > > having > > > > > > > > to stop operations in it’s existing area of operations. > > > > > > > > > 5. The reasons for the good performance of the company in th= e > > > > > > > last > > > > > > > > quarter Q4 of FY07 (after adjusting extraordinary charges, t= he > > > > > > > net > > > > > > > > profit is a very good positive figure) is the settlement of > > > > > > > old dues > > > > > > > > by the Jindals, and also the deferment in shipping of some > > > > > > > orders of > > > > > > > > Q3 to Q4. > > > > > > > > > While highlighting the fact regarding the Q4 results being > > > > > > > very good, > > > > > > > > you did not try to find out (or did not care to reveal) the > > > > > > > real > > > > > > > > reasons for the same !! > > > > > > > > > 6. It is not possible for the company to ramp up operations > > > > > > > quickly at > > > > > > > > any point of time. The company has mined most of it’s existi= ng > > > > > > > area > > > > > > > > of operations, and is now steadily approaching the periphery > > > > > > > of the > > > > > > > > area allotted to it for mining. In fact if it does not recei= ve > > > > > > > > clearances for additional mining area (for which- Hide quote= d text - > > - Show quoted text -