IT sector - oversold?
Thanks Debashishji.
I totally agree with your ideas below, and of course, am very excited to see some of the feeds coming to the ISG-US site from MSN.com. Is it possible for you to forward some of the articles from the minyanville.com site also. That would be extremely helpful.
Thanks much.
KKP
Debashish Ghosh wrote: > Dear Sureshji, > YOu have addressed your mail to KKP but I am taking the liberty to > answer. Frankly the US-ISG group is just starting off and right now > your daughter, IMHO, would not get too much material over there to > learm.However in the US there are so many good resources to start of > the learning process she will be up to speed in no time. I am naming some > www.fool.com - this is an excellent website for > people starting of - specially the Fool School - > http://www.fool.com/school.htm?ref=G02A06 > 2. www.minyanville.com - check out the > minyanville university - I think this one of the best websites out > there for beginner investor’s. They have an excellent paid service > which is free to any student - so if she is a student and has an .edu > email address I can send her an invite to have a free access to their > paid service. (I personally have benefited the most from this site) > 3. www.msn.com - lots of info for beginner > investor’s especially in mutual funds. > Ofc ask her to join ISG-US , any questions she has we will try our > best to answer. May be in a couple of days I will start a thread on > this on ISG-US > Thanks > Debashish > > On 9/12/07, *Suresh Manjeshwar* > wrote: > > Dear KKP, > > Presently I am in US with mydaughter, Shweta. She is interested in > joining the US ISG group and learn about investing in US. I would > appreciate if you could let her know how to go about it. > > Thanks and with regards, > > Suresh > > > On 9/12/07, *KKP_Investor* > wrote: > > > I agree with most of your points with one difference in the 2001 > recession. > > The 2001 recession was created out of excesses, but the > investment theme > of millenium was still strongly in effect with off-shoring > being really > big, and taking off. Outsourcing contracts are large, and > long. Once > inked, there are huge Contract Minimum that have to be adhered > to. I am > living a contract right now, and about to sell/contract > another one > ($110M+ TCV). > > In addition, the off-shoring to near-by economies (Argentina, > Brazil, > Canada, Mexico and others) + the huge number of Off-shoring > contractors > (besides InfoSys, Wipro, TCS and others) may start to affect > Indian > companies. In addition, the cost of hedging against other > currencies, > or actually taking a beating for hedge not working out to be a > net-net-advantage will affect the bottom line of these companies. > > Timing the purchase of INFY, WIT, SAY, SIFY, REDF, TCS > (upcoming) etc is > going to be critical for us investors (in the US) as well as > Indian > investors. > > I love Sterlite and have started buying it in a ad-hoc SIP > mode in the US. > > Please get on to the US ISG site and start communicating these > messages > over there. We need to get started and get active over there. > > KKP > > ps: If someone is wondering what the last sentence means, then > it is a > US based group on Google for investors who are investing in US > stocks, > and who wish to be active participants. Please contact Guru > or myself. > Thanks. opening of a US > branch of ISG!> > > > Debashish Ghosh wrote: > > HI KKP, > > Very good points. But do remember one thing….the last > recession of > > 2001 made offshoring/outsourcing take off in a big way. > Though past > > performances do not guarantee future repeats they do give yu > a good > > perspective. Again what I am seeing in a big way here in > Omaha even > > SMBs are jumping into the offshoring bandwagon though this > time around > > the rates are just abysmal. Also I am seeing a demand for > near shoring > > outsourcing. A very big credit card processing company which > was just > > acquired by a PE company has their development center here > in Omaha. > > They wanted to near-shore their entire > development/maintenance work to > > a company in South America for the time zone issues. You know > who won > > the multi-million dollar multi-year project in Brazil. > Satyam. They > > were nimble and fast enough to set up a development center in > Rio, > > hire Brazilians but also moved some people from India who > would work > > in Brazil and voila they have won the project. Plus the rates > are > > better than that of Indian offshoring. So I really think > companies > > like Infy, CTSH, SAY, WIT who are nimble and quick to turn > around and > > execute would make all of us a lot of money in the foresable > future. > > However the name of the game is to understand when to enter. > You guys > > have opened my eyes to TA and hope to make better decisions > in entering. > > Another stock I have just started nibling here in the US is > Sterlite > > Thanks > > Debashish > > > > On 9/4/07, *KKP_Investor* > > >> wrote: > > > > > > Yes, I am in the IT sector, sitting in the US. I only have a > > small view > > of the world, and am biased based on what I > see/experience. So, I am > > sure, I am wrong about a lot of things when I talk in > > generalities, and > > when I talk about ‘future’ direction and prediction. > > > > HLL is a very humbling experience for a lot of ‘older > investors’ > > since > > this has underperformed BSE in a huge way, esp. when the > rest of > > it has > > moved. I am a holder of HLL, Colgate, ITC, P&G and other > > FMCG/Cosmetics > > type of stocks. I am slowing moving out of them, > transitioning the > > portfolio to other better picks. > > > > Back to IT stocks. I think it is creating a humbling > environment > > for the > > all the IT investors, since stocks, like trees, cannot > continue to > > grow > > to the sky. And, if the US hits a minor recession (I say > minor since > > Bernake will do all he can not to taint his beginnings > with a deep > > recession), then we will see another 10% to 30% > correction in these > > stocks (10 and 30 are random numbers, without any > analysis, and not > > meant to scare anyone). > > > > But, while all this is going on, we at ISG should be > vigilent to pick > > this up near the bottom. Fibo analysis can give us an > idea of how far > > down it can go (61%, 50%, 38% etc). Draw those numbers and > > watch. At > > that point, these stocks can enter a long term portfolio > for new > > investors who do not have any exposure. > > > > My current favorite is NIIT Tech as some of you know. I > have played > > this stock successfully, and made money on it > also. Today it went > > ex-Bonus, but there are already too many buyers jumping > on it. On > > a bit > > of a pull back, we should get into this stock. > > > > KKP > > > > > > Ramki wrote: > > > Thanks for your inputs KKP_Investor. I believe you are > working > > in IT > > > Industry and your information is your own personal > experience > > (correct > > > me if i am wrong). > > > > > > >From my experience in stocks for last 7 years, I find that > > while stock > > > markets are very rewarding to those companies that show > consistent > > > growth, the same markets are very punishing to those > companies which > > > falter in their growth and show stagnation and uncertainity > > (think of > > > HLL in last 6 years). I think this is a indication of > what is to > > come > > > in this sector. > > > > > > > > > > > > On Sep 3, 9:53 pm, KKP_Investor > > >> wrote: > > > > > >> My view on IT Stocks: > > >> > > >> Indian IT stocks will shine, but once the ‘black > clouds’ of ‘US > > economy > > >> slowdown, IT slowdown, $-Rs appreciation’ and other > factors are > > someone > > >> ‘more’ known that they are right now. > > >> > > >> US eco is slowing down. In a slowdown, margins will > have to > > shrink, IT > > >> budgets will be cut, and only the projects that create > > net-savings will > > >> be executed. We are already been asked to cut down on > > expenses, and > > >> travel. This is usually the starting sign of a US > slowdown, > > and I am > > >> personally already experiencing it. > > >> > > >> Hope this completely answers the question. > > >> > > >> KKP > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> santosh s wrote: > > >> > > >>> Hi > > >>> I don’t hv Polaris and my broker has recommended me > to buy it. > > >>> Members pls share your views. > > >>> Thanks. > > >>> > > >>> */Chandramukhi L > > >>/* wrote: > > >>> > > >>> This is really a nice feedback and advise > > >>> Thanks > > >>> > > >>> But what is your take on IT sector? > > >>> > > >>> On 9/1/07, *KKP_Investor* > > > > > >>> > > >>> wrote: > > >>> > > >>> You have to have a very large portfolio and > be ready > > to hold > > >>> things > > >>> through thick and thin, gain and loss. That > is what a > > contrarian > > >>> approach takes. A stomach of steel. Holding > Sugar > > Stocks, > > >>> and even > > >>> more, buying in late 2006, early 2007 is > something > > that very > > >>> few can do > > >>> since most cannot handle a losing situation > for too > > >>> long. After that, > > >>> it wears on one’s confidence and personal > credibility. > > >>> > > >>> IT stocks will shine, but once the ‘black > clouds’ of > > ‘US economy > > >>> slowdown, IT slowdown, $-Rs appreciation’ and > other > > factors > > >>> are someone > > >>> ‘more’ known that right now. > > >>> > > >>> My reco, is that if you want to be a > contrarian, buy > > using a > > >>> Stock-SIP > > >>> methodology. You take the ‘time’ risk and > melt it > > down to > > >>> virtually zero. > > >>> > > >>> Hope this helps. > > >>> > > >>> KKP > > >>> > > >>> Chandramukhi L wrote: > > >>> > Where to check the survey? > > >>> > > >>> > What do you say abt contrarian approoach? > > >>> > > >>> > On 8/31/07, *KKP_Investor* kkpatel1…@gmail.com > > > > > >>> > > >> > > >>> > > > > > > >>> > > >>>> wrote: > > >>> > > >>> > I am not sure about the optimistic view of > > Eshersji and > > >>> > Chadramukhiji……If you are > bottom-fishing or > > adding > > >>> to existing > > >>> > positions that is a different story. > > >>> > > >>> > We might get a chance to buy at lower > prices > > relative to > > >>> > current. Yes, > > >>> > it has shown a recovery, but too much > resistance > > above > > >>> it. Check out > > >>> > the survey that I participate in with > approx > > 8000 other > > >>> people who > > >>> > have > > >>> > a deep view into their own company or > their > > customers > > >>> situation. This > > >>> > shows the future of IT spending in the US: > > >>> > > >>> > KKP > > >>> > > >>> > sm wrote: > > >>> > > Better to add Infy at around 1600 if > it goes > > there. I > > >>> am not > > >>> > buying it > > >>> > > yet. > > >>> > > >>> > > On 31/08/2007, *Eshers* esh…@gmail.com > > > > > >>> >> > > >>> > > > > > > > >>> > > >>> > > > > >> > > >>> > > > > > > > >>>>> > > >>> > > wrote: > > >>> > > >>> > > I recently added infy and i do > agree many > > of the > > >>> IT stocks are > > >>> > > looking really attractive. I > would wait > > for the > > >>> results though > > >>> > > before i put in fresh money at > the current > > levels. > > >>> Normally > > >>> > q2 is > > >>> > > the best one for the sector. Hope > this qtr > > will > > >>> revive the > > >>> > > fortunes of the IT companies. > > >>> > > >>> > > Cheers > > >>> > > >>> > > On 8/30/07, *Chandramukhi L* > >>> l.chandramu…@gmail.com > > > > l.chandramu…@gmail.com > > >> > > >>> > > > > > > >>> > > >>> > > >>> > > > > > > > >>> > > >> > > >>> > > > > > > >>> > > >>>>> wrote: > > >>> > > >>> > > Any contrarians out there? > > >>> > > >>> > > I feel a bit bullish on IT > sector. > > Appears to > > >>> be oversold > > >>> > > Friends, Pl. let me have your > views > > >>> > > >>> > > — > > >>> > > With regards > > >>> > > Cheers > > >>> > > Chand > > >>> > > >>> > > — > > >>> > > I work in the IT industry and > passionate about > > >>> markets. > > >>> > Active in > > >>> > > the markets for the last 5 years. > Reading > > about > > >>> legends like > > >>> > > Buffett, Munger, Peter lynch etc > gave some > > good > > >>> insights about > > >>> > > investing and markets.. Great Fan > of Ramesh > > >>> Damani.. His chats > > >>> > > since rediff days helped me a > lot to > > understand > > >>> and learn > > >>> > > (whatever little i have learned) > about > > markets. > > >>> > > >>> > > Prefer concenrated Portfolio and > long-term > > >>> investing. My core > > >>> > > holdings are Infosys, Nucleus, > KLG Systel, > > M&M , > > >>> PLNG.I normally > > >>> > > avoid cyclicals, Commodities.. > > >>> > > >>> > > — > > >>> > > “Dreams are not the ones you see when > you > > sleep but > > >>> are those which > > >>> > > never let you sleep till they are > achieved” > > >>> > > >>> > > > ———————————————————————— > > >>> Try the revolutionary next-gen Yahoo! Mail. > Click here. > > >>> > > http://in.rd.yahoo.com/tagline_mail_10/*http://mrd.mail.yahoo.com/dc/… > >- > > Hide quoted text - > > >>> > > >> - Show quoted text - > > >> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
